Home Prices Inch Up Despite Falling Home Sales And Rising Inventories

Six consecutive months of falling sales and rising inventories continue to level the market between buyers and sellers in Lincoln Park, Near North, Lakeview and North Center.

While the North Side market continues to be healthy, there is no doubt that it is slowing from the dramatic rebound of the 2008 recession. As a result, analyzing the current market is a bit more complicated than it was in 2013 - 2017,  when sales and prices were up and inventories and market times were down in almost every neighborhood.

As sales drop and inventories increase, we are seeing a rise in Months Of Supply Of Inventory (MSI). 6.0 MSI is usually recognized as the dividing line between a buyer's market and a seller's market. At the height of the recession, the MSI hovered around 13.7 MSI in December of 2009 indicating a very strong buyer's market. As the rebound exploded, MSI dipped to as low as 3.2 in February 2015, which strongly favored sellers. May 2018 produced an MSI of 4.6 and seems to be inching higher. It should be noted (see MSI below) that MSI can vary greatly by neighborhood from a high of 6.0 in Near North to 3.5 in Lakeview.

Rising MSI is not necessarily an indicator of a declining market, but rather an equalizing of opportunities for buyers and sellers. While prices continue to rise, so do market times due to increased inventory.

As always, any property/market analysis should center on specific property types, neighborhoods and price points. 

 

HOME SALES

May 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Home Sales dropped 7.9%.

NEAR NORTH - Down 7.0%

LINCOLN PARK - Up 0.6%

LAKEVIEW - Down 6.2%

NORTH CENTER - Down 29.8%

Noteworthy :

Sales of luxury homes (priced over $1,000,000) decreased 9.2% .

Sales of homes homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000 dropped 1.2%.

Sales of homes priced under $500,000 dropped 10.9%.

 

HOMES UNDER CONTRACT

May 2018 vs 2017 –  Cumulative Homes Under Contract dropped 2.4%.

NEAR NORTH - Down 4.1%

LINCOLN PARK - Up 0.6%

LAKEVIEW - Down 7.8%

NORTH CENTER - Up 14.0%

Noteworthy – Most home sales that closed in March went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract can reflect a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.  

 

HOMES FOR SALE

May 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Inventories of homes rose 8.8%.

NEAR NORTH - Up 13.6%

LINCOLN PARK -  Up 7.2%

LAKEVIEW - Up 1.1%

NORTH CENTER - Up 7.9%

Noteworthy :

While the cumulative inventory levels rose in May, the results varied by price point.

Luxury home inventories decreased for the 7th consecutive month (down 2.7% in May).

Inventories of homes priced between $500,000 to $1,000,000 increased 12.6%.

Homes priced under $500,000 saw inventory levels increase by 16.6%.

 

MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY

May 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Months of Supply of Inventories rose 12.1% to 4.6 MSI.

NEAR NORTH - Up 13.2% to 6.0 MSI

LINCOLN PARK - Up 7.3% to 4.4 MSI

LAKEVIEW - Up 6.1% to 3.5 MSI

NORTH CENTER - Up 19.4% to 4.3 MSI

Noteworthy :

Traditionally, MSI over 6.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. 

MSI of luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 dropped for the 7th consecutive month to 8.8 MSI (10.4 MSI last year).

MSI of homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 increased 22.5% to 4.9 MSI.  

MSI of homes priced under $500,000 rose 23.0% to 3.2 MSI. 

While most of these numbers are still in the range of a seller's market, MSI of homes priced under $1,000,000 continue to increase, "leveling the playing field" between buyers and sellers.

 

MEDIAN PRICING

May 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Median Prices increased 0.9%.

NEAR NORTH - Up 6.0%

LINCOLN PARK - Up 5.5%

LAKEVIEW - Up 5.1%

NORTH CENTER - Down 8.1%

Noteworthy :

Median prices of luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 decreased 2.1%. 

Median prices of homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000 increased 2.7%.

Homes priced under $500,000 decreased 5.3%.

 

DAYS ON THE MARKET

May 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Average Days On The Market increased 13.4% to 76 Days.

NEAR NORTH - Up 26.5% to 86 days

LINCOLN PARK - Down 1.3% to 75 days

LAKEVIEW - Down 1.9% to 52 days

NORTH CENTER - Up 30.4% to 90 days

Noteworthy :

Market time for luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 decreased 26.0% to 114 days. 

Homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 posted market time increases of 40.0% to 80 days. 

Market times for homes priced under $500,000 increased 38% to 61 days.

 

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