We are at the half way point of 2018. seven consecutive months of falling sales and rising inventories are signaling that the dramatic five year rebound from the recession is slowing down on Chicago's North Side.
The lone bright spot in June was a 17.6% increase in Units Under Contract when comparing 2018 to 2017. Should most of these homes close in July, we could have the first monthly year over year sales increase this year.
With that being said, buyers and especially sellers need to be very realistic in their pricing expectations as summer heads into fall. Rising Months Of Supply Of Inventory continues to level the "playing field" between buyers and sellers. As inventories rise, buyers have more choices and the days of ridiculously low market times and multiple offers have slowed considerably.
There are still some great opportunities for both buyers and sellers, but a thorough understanding of individual neighborhoods, property types and price points are the keys to real estate success in this changing market.
June 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Home Sales dropped 15.2%.
NEAR NORTH - Down 1.2%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 14.5%
LAKEVIEW - Down 26.1%
NORTH CENTER - Down 28.3%
Sales of luxury homes (priced over $1,000,000) decreased 23.0% .
Sales of homes homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000 dropped 20.8%.
Sales of homes priced under $500,000 dropped 10.5%.
HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
June 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Homes Under Contract increased 17.6%.
NEAR NORTH - Up 5.1%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 5.0%
LAKEVIEW - Up 18.0%
NORTH CENTER - Up 29.3%
Noteworthy – Most home sales that closed in June went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract can reflect a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
HOMES FOR SALE
June 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Inventories of homes rose 6.6%.
NEAR NORTH - Up 12.5%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 6.0%
LAKEVIEW - Down 1.6%
NORTH CENTER - Up 0.4%
While the cumulative inventory levels rose in June, the results varied by price point.
Luxury home inventories decreased for the 8th consecutive month (down 4.4% in June).
Inventories of homes priced between $500,000 to $1,000,000 increased 6.9%.
Homes priced under $500,000 saw inventory levels increase by 15.6%.
MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
June 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Months of Supply of Inventories rose 6.9% to 4.6 MSI.
NEAR NORTH - Up 10.9% to 6.1 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Up 7.0% to 4.6 MSI
LAKEVIEW - No Change at 3.5 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Up 15.0% to 4.2 MSI
Traditionally, MSI over 6.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market.
MSI of luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 dropped for the 8th consecutive month to 8.6 MSI (10.4 MSI last year).
MSI of homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 increased 13.9% to 4.9 MSI.
MSI of homes priced under $500,000 rose 17.9% to 3.3 MSI.
While most of these numbers are still in the range of a seller's market, MSI of homes priced under $1,000,000 continue to increase, "leveling the playing field" between buyers and sellers.
June 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Median Prices decreased by 7.9%.
NEAR NORTH - Up 0.2%%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 13.4%
LAKEVIEW - Down 9.0%
NORTH CENTER - Down 7.2%
Median prices of luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 increased 8.2%.
Median prices of homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000 increased 0.3%.
Homes priced under $500,000 decreased 3.6%.
DAYS ON THE MARKET
June 2018 vs 2017 – Cumulative Average Days On The Market increased 11.8% to 66 Days.
NEAR NORTH - Up 23.5% to 84 days
LINCOLN PARK - No change at 75 days
LAKEVIEW - Up 31.7% to 54 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 3.3% to 59 days
Market time for luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 increased 10.3% to 129 days.
Homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 posted market time increases of 30.3% to 73 days.
Market times for homes priced under $500,000 increased 16.3% to 50 days.