While The Market Remains Healthy, January (2019 vs 2018) continued a 14 consecutive month trend of declining Home sales and rising inventories.
Here are 3 positive takeaways from January’s numbers:
Homes Priced From $500,000 to $1,000,000 Performed Well
Sales of homes priced under $500,000 are suffering from the glut of new construction luxury rentals, while sales of homes priced over $1,000,000 are dropping in part to stale inventory and government instability.
The market for homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000 has been outperforming lower and higher price point homes for the past few months.
January 2019 vs 2018 sales of mid price point homes increased 3.1% and average market time decreased 21.7%
Much of the current new construction is within these mid price points, as are most town homes in which supply has a hard time keeping up with demand.
it should be noted, however, that inventories rose and median prices dropped last month for homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000.
Median Prices Rose In January
Despite falling sales and rising inventories, median prices rose in January 2019 vs 2018 by 8.5%.
While there were small decreases in median prices in Lincoln Park and Lakeview, Near North prices were up by 12.3% and North Center Prices were up a dramatic 29.8%.
It appears that competitively priced, fresh new inventory is selling faster and at higher prices than homes that have accumulated market time and are in need of a price change.
More Opportunities For Buyers
Since the beginning of the post recession boom in 2013 the market has been heavily weighted toward sellers. as a result of pent up demand and low inventories. As the market continues to level off and inventories rise, buyers are seeing more opportunities.
With a combined Months Of Supply Of Inventory of 4.0, it is still a sellers market, but the urgency that buyers were experiencing in the past 5 years has subsided a bit. (6.0 is acknowledged to be the dividing line between a buyer’s and seller’s market).
Buyers now have more choices and time to do their due diligence.
As noted above, buyers still need to react quickly to new highly sought after property types such as town homes, new construction and value perceived homes, as they hit the spring market.
January 2019 vs 2018 – Cumulative Home Sales dropped 22.5%
NEAR NORTH - Down 23.2%
LINCOLN PARK -Down 26.2%
LAKEVIEW - Down 18.8%
NORTH CENTER - Down 23.4%
Sales of luxury homes (priced over $1,000,000) decreased 31.3%
Sales of homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000 increased 3.1%
Sales of homes priced under $500,000 decreased 31.5%
HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
January 2019 vs 2018 – Cumulative Homes Under Contract decreased 11.7%
NEAR NORTH - Down 12.7%
LINCOLN PARK -Down 1.8%
LAKEVIEW - Down 9.1%
NORTH CENTER - Up 29.7%
Noteworthy – Most home sales that closed in January went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract can reflect a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
HOMES FOR SALE
January 2019 vs 2018 – Cumulative Inventories of homes rose 13.7%
NEAR NORTH - Up 13.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 16.1%
LAKEVIEW - Up 13.9%
NORTH CENTER - Up 8.0%
Luxury home inventories (priced over $1,000,000) increased 2.3%
Inventories of homes priced between $500,000 to $1,000,000 increased 14.5%
Homes priced under $500,000 saw inventory levels increase by 23.7%
MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
January 2019 vs 2018 – Cumulative Months of Supply of Inventories rose 21.2% to 4.0 MSI
NEAR NORTH - Up 22.7% to 5.4 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Up 25.0% to 4.0 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Up 28.0% to 3.2 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Up 20.7% to 3.5 MSI
Traditionally, MSI over 6.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market.
MSI of luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 rose 11.5% to 7.7 MSI
MSI of homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 rose 17.1% to 4.1 MSI
MSI of homes priced under $500,000 rose 33.3% to 2.8 MSI
January 2019 vs 2018 – Cumulative Median Prices increased by 8.5%
NEAR NORTH - Up 12.3%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 5.1%
LAKEVIEW - Down 0.5%
NORTH CENTER - Up 29.8%
Median prices of luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 decreased 5.1%
Median prices of homes priced from $500,000 to $1,000,000 decreased 4.6%
Homes priced under $500,000 increased 1.3%
DAYS ON THE MARKET
January 2019 vs 2018 – Cumulative Average Days On The Market increased 4.5% to 117 days
NEAR NORTH - Up 6.4% to 116 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 2.9% to 100 days
LAKEVIEW - Up 13.9% to 82 days
NORTH CENTER - Down 9.1% to 110 days
Market time for luxury homes priced over $1,000,000 decreased 39.6% to 215 days
Homes priced between $500,000 and $1,000,000 posted market time decreased 21.7% to 108 days
Market times for homes priced under $500,000 increased 15.2% to 91 days