JANUARY 2024 MARKET ANALYSIS FOR CHICAGO'S NORTH SIDE
Our monthly market analysis below details six real estate comparatives for the Near North Side, Lincoln Park, Lakeview and North Center, in addition to our comprehensive monthly summary.
DECEMBER HOME SALES
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 23.8%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 2.3%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 7.6%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 29.8%
LAKEVIEW - Up 4.4%
NORTH CENTER - Up 9.1%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Up 5.5%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 17.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 13.7%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 25.0%
DECEMBER HOMES UNDER CONTRACT
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 19.6%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 0.7%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Up 2.1%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 6.3%
LAKEVIEW - Down 9.0%
NORTH CENTER - Up 19.0%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 3.3%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 10.2%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 3.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 10.0%
Noteworthy : Most home sales that closed this month went under contract in a previous month. Units Under Contract reflects a more accurate picture of the current month, although not every home that goes under contract closes.
DECEMBER HOMES FOR SALE
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Down 20.1%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 23.4%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 11.8%
LINCOLN PARK - Down 32.6%
LAKEVIEW - Down 45.4%
NORTH CENTER - Down 40.3%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 21.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 30.4%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 20.4%
Over $2,000,000 - Down 18.4%
DECEMBER MONTHS OF SUPPLY OF INVENTORY
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up 6.9% to 3.1 MSI
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 12.0% to 2.2 MSI
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 20.0% to 1.6 MSI
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Down 12.5% to 2.1 MSI
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 10.0% to 3.6 MSI
Over $2,000,000 - Down 18.8% to 6.9 MSI
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 2.3% to 4.3 MSI
LINCOLN PARK - Down 5.3% to 1.8 MSI
LAKEVIEW - Down 29.4 to 1.2 MSI
NORTH CENTER - Down 23.8% to 1.6 MSI
Noteworthy - Traditionally, MSI over 7.0 designates a buyer’s market and under 6.0 a seller’s market. Between 6.0 & 7.0 is considered a neutral market.
DECEMBER MEDIAN PRICING
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022 - Up 1.3%
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Up 6.3%
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 1.5%
LINCOLN PARK - Up 10.3%
LAKEVIEW - Up 29.6%
NORTH CENTER - Down 6.3%
Month By Price Point
Under $500,000 - Down 0.1%
$500,000 to $1,000,000 - Up 2.0%
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Down 2.9%
Over $2,000,000 - Up 5.0%
DECEMBER DAYS ON THE MARKET
Year To Date 2023 vs 2022- Down 8.0% to 23 Days
Month 2023 vs 2022 - Down 15.7% to 75 Days
Month By Neighborhood
NEAR NORTH - Down 19.4% to 108 days
LINCOLN PARK - Down 19.3% to 67 days
LAKEVIEW - Down 17.0 to 55 days
NORTH CENTER - Up 24.2% to 69 Days
Month By Price Point :
Under $500,000 - Down 34.6% to 34 Days
$500,000 to $1,000,000 Down 29.1% to 39 Days
$1,000,000 to $2,000,000 - Up 83.3% to 99 Days
Over $2,000,000 - Up 12.9% to 61 Days
JANUARY SUMMARY
HAPPY NEW YEAR - After 21 consecutive months of year-over-year home sales decreases, 2023 ended with a 2.3% increase in December for Lincoln Park, Near North Side, Lakeview and North Center. Hopefully, these positive numbers from December will signal a Chicago real estate rebound in 2024. The stabilizing and lowering of interest rates should be a stimulus for the 2004 spring real estate season; however we still face some challenges before we can feel confident that the market is rebounding. The following are some positive signs and some issues.
HOMES SALES - Homes sales which dropped 23.8% in 2023 vs 2022 rose 2.3% in December. While three of our four neighborhoods reported increases, Lincoln Park dropped 29.8%. The December increase was driven primarily by homes priced under $500,000 and homes priced over $2,000,000. The increase in home sales is great news, but there are still inconsistencies in neighborhoods and price points.
INVENTORY - With interest rates dropping, historically low inventory levels are now the main obstacle to a real estate rebound. Inventory levels dropped 20.1% in 2023 and 23.4% in December. These decreases were consistent in all four neighborhoods and price points. We will need a significant infusion of new inventory in order to sustain a long term real estate turn around.
INTEREST RATES & LOAN LIMITS - Falling interest rates and rising loan limits have given North Side real estate a new enthusiasm for 2024. Many home loans have dropped below 7% and are expected to fall as low as 5.5% by the second quarter. Conventional home loan limits have risen from $726,000 in 2022 to $766,550 in 2023 (The limits for other loans such as FHA have also been increased). Loan limit increases in addition to interest rate decreases are restoring some of the buying power that has been lost in the past 2 years. We can already see an increase in buyer activity in the past few weeks. The lowering of interest rates will hopefully bring sellers back into the market raising inventory levels that are so desperately needed.
HOME PRICES - 2023 saw home prices rise by 1.3% over 2022, while December prices rose 6.3%. Traditionally, low inventory levels significantly drive up prices, but this has not been the case on Chicago’s North Side. Our numbers are lower than the Chicago suburbs and many cities across the country . As we head into the spring real estate season sellers should be careful not to fall victim to perceived market momentum. Homes need to be priced competitively to avoid extended market times and lower offers.
GOING FORWARD
It is too early to predict the 2024 market, but unlike 2023, there are positive indicators. Buyers and sellers need to stay updated on a regular basis for market changes in their specific neighborhood and property types. The market for a single family home in Lincoln Park can be entirely different from a high-rise condo in the Gold Coast.
YOUR HOME
A logical question would be “how does all of this affect the home that I am planning to sell or potentially buy?”
Every home is unique and a detailed analysis of your property and neighborhood is a necessity to fully understand the true market value and whether this is the right time to buy or sell.
There are many criteria both objective and subjective that must be analyzed in order to get a true picture.
Internet home pricing sites that claim to calculate your home’s value using only algorithms can be wildly inaccurate. Many market analysis from real estate agents that have not taken the time to personally tour the home can also be seriously flawed. Today’s volatility demands that you get a broker who thoroughly understands this rapidly changing market.
Whether you are buying or selling a home, we would welcome the opportunity to have a conversation about your real estate needs, goals and expectations.